The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report on the fossil fuel production deficit predicts that producing countries will drill or extract more than twice the levels needed to limit global warming to 1.5º C. Oil and gas recovery is therefore expected to increase considerably with only a modest decrease in coal.
An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) study on the production deficit concludes that countries expect to produce about 110% more fossil fuel than would be compatible with a 1.5°C temperature increase by the end of this century. To stay below this threshold will require cuts in carbon emissions of about 45% by 2030, based on 2010 levels, and prevent the temperature from rising more than 2°C.
According to the study, coal production will fall, but gas will increase more over the next 20 years, to levels that are simply incompatible with the Paris agreement.
"The research is clear: world production of coal, oil and gas must begin to decline immediately and sharply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C," said Ploy Achakulwisut, one of the lead authors of the report from the Stockholm Environment Institute.
The 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference 2021 (COP26) will start on October 31, and it looks like the biggest carbon emitters intend to reduce their emission levels.
World production of coal, oil and gas must begin to decline immediately and sharply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C
Ploy Achakulwisut
Despite the claim of net zero emissions, some of the largest oil, gas, and coal producers have yet to lay out plans for the rapid reductions in fossil fuels that scientists say are needed to limit rising temperatures in the coming years.
"Governments continue to predict and support levels of fossil fuel production that are vastly higher than we can safely burn," the authors say.
Although after the Covid-19 pandemic countries devoted much more of their recovery spending to fossil fuel activities, there are some positives when it comes to funding.
Oil, coal and gas financing through multilateral banks has decreased significantly in recent years - and also from some of the wealthier nations.
"This report shows, once again, a simple but powerful truth: we need to stop pumping oil and gas out of the ground if we want to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement," said Andrea Meza, Costa Rica's minister of environment and energy.
"We have to cut with both hands of the scissors, simultaneously addressing the demand and supply of fossil fuels. That is why, together with Denmark, we are leading the way in creating the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance to stop the expansion of fossil fuel extraction, schedule a fair transition for workers, and begin to shut down existing production in a managed way," he concluded.