The IMF rules out a global recession this year, having revised world GDP growth slightly upwards to 2.9%, reflecting higher than expected resilience in several economies, but below the 3.4% estimated for 2022.

In its 'Global Economic Outlook' (WEO), released today and quoted by Lusa, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is slightly more optimistic for this year, projecting growth of 0.2 percentage points above what it expected in October, reflecting "positive surprises and above-expected resilience in several economies".

The institution led by Kristalina Georgieva thus predicts that world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, estimated at 3.4% in 2022, will fall to 2.9% this year, before rising to 3.1% in 2024.

"Negative growth is not expected in global GDP or in global GDP per capita, which usually happens when there is a recession," he points out.

However, it notes that the overall growth projected for 2023 and 2024 is below the annual average of 3.8% for the period 2000-19.

Weighing on economic activity last year were inflation, the war in Ukraine and the resurgence of covid-19 in China, warning that the first two factors will continue into 2023.

"The forecast of low growth in 2023 reflects the increase in central bank rates to combat inflation - especially in advanced economies - as well as the war in Ukraine," he explains.

On the other hand, the decline in growth in 2023 compared to 2022 is influenced by the advanced economies, since in the emerging and developing economies, growth is estimated to have reached its lowest point in 2022.

The expected recovery in 2024 in both groups of economies reflects the gradual recovery from the effects of the crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and the reduction in inflation.

Reflecting the dynamics of the international context, world trade is expected to fall in 2023 to 2.4%, despite the reduction in supply bottlenecks, before rising to 3.4% in 2024.

For the Bretton Woods institution, the balance of risks in economic forecasts continues to tip to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October report.

On the positive side, he points to a stronger boost to pent-up demand in several economies or a faster fall in inflation as plausible. On the negative side, he admits that health problems in China could delay recovery, Russia's war in Ukraine could escalate and tighter global financing conditions could worsen the debt problem.

Financial markets can also react suddenly to adverse news on inflation, while greater geopolitical fragmentation can hinder economic progress, he adds.

Even so, the report notes that despite the "headwinds", real GDP was "surprisingly strong" in the third quarter of 2022 in several economies, including the United States, the eurozone and the main emerging markets and developing economies.

"The sources of these surprises were in many cases internal: stronger than expected private consumption and investment amid tight labor markets and greater than expected fiscal support

The IMF forecasts that the GDP of advanced economies will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.4% in 2024 and that of emerging markets and developing economies by 4% this year and 4.2% in 2024.

The report predicts that the US economy will grow by 1.4% in 2023 and 1% in 2024, that the eurozone will grow by 0.7% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024 and that China will grow by 5.2% this year and 4.5% in 2024.