OPEC revises slightly upward estimate for global oil demand in 2023

OPEP revê em alta ligeira estimativa da procura global de petróleo em 2023

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) today revised upwards its forecast for global oil demand in 2023, estimating it at 101.87 million barrels per day, 2.33% more than in 2022..

The growth of 2.33%, which represents an increase of 2.32 million barrels per day in consumption compared to last year's average of 99.55 million barrels per day, is 100,000 barrels per day or 0.1% higher than estimated a month ago, OPEC said in its monthly report.

The upward revision is mainly attributed to China's economic recovery, which in turn would improve the outlook in other regions.

The new forecasts are based on improved estimates of world economic growth in both 2022, now 3.1%, and 2023, 2.6%.

Transport fuels will be the main drivers of oil demand, with annual increases of around 1.1 million barrels per day for gasoline and diesel to levels "well above pre-pandemic".

"The key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be China's return" after lifting the mobility restrictions it had imposed in the "zero covid" policy to contain the pandemic, "and the effect this will have on the country, the region and the world," explain the experts from the Vienna-based organization, quoted by Lusa.

They admit, however, that there is some "concern about the depth and pace of the economic recovery" in China and that "much will depend on how the (Chinese) government manages to maintain the delicate balance between combating covid-19 contagions and opening up to business".

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