The consulting firm Fitch Solutions said today that violence in northern Mozambique will cause the number of internal refugees to continue to rise, keeping social tension in the region high and threatening gas development.

"We believe the number of internally displaced people in Mozambique will continue to rise in the coming quarters, with violence continuing to lead to a burden on neighboring cities and keeping the risks of social tensions and instability high," write the analysts of this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.

The most recent data from the United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs points to a significant increase in the number of internally displaced persons, which rose from 172,000 in April 2020 to 945,000 in June this year, as a result of the violence that has affected the northernmost region of the country, which is home to the large gas reserves that Mozambique sees as fundamental to underpin growth and economic development.

The armed insurgency in Mozambique, points out Fitch Solutions in the analysis sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, "will continue at high levels of activity by Islamic militants and will continue to be one of the main security threats to the development of the liquefied natural gas sector in Cabo Delgado province.

In its analysis of the latest developments in Mozambique's natural gas sector, Fitch Solutions writes that Italy's Eni has already begun exporting gas from the country, taking its first cargo on November 13, but points out that "its operations on the floating platform off the country's coast have not been affected by the militants' activities."

ExxonMobil, for its part, "has not yet updated its timetable for a Final Investment Decision, reflecting the country's weak security situation," but still Fitch Solutions anticipates that the US oil company will decide next year.

"The uncertainty over ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies' timetables is a downside risk to our medium- to long-term growth prospects for Mozambique, as restarting work may weigh on the development of the natural gas sector," the analysts conclude.

Cabo Delgado province has been facing an armed insurgency promoted by rebels for five years, with some attacks claimed by the extremist group Islamic State.