Although Angola will emerge from recession in 2021, its economic output will remain below pre-pandemic covid-19 levels until next year, according to the United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) economist.

Despite the growth that may be registered this year after six years of stagnation, Helena Afonso says that this will not be very significant due to the impact of covid-19 on the economy.

Growth for 2022 follows a period of difficulty "after contracting 4% in 2020, the fifth in a row and the most severe in 30 years, and in 2021 we estimate zero growth given lower oil production despite rising prices."

The analyst of Lusophone African economies said that "Angola is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, as a result of higher oil revenues on both the price and production side, and greater macroeconomic stability, which will encourage investment," but "the economy remains below pre-pandemic production levels until 2023."

Angolan growth will be limited by the wave of new infections by the omicron variant until a considerable number of people are vaccinated "which is unlikely in 2022," limitations on consumption in the recovery of consumption and investment.

As far as inflation is concerned, UNDESA forecasts prices to rise around 20%.

After prices ended the year with an increase of 27% in December, according to the Angolan National Institute of Statistics, "consumption and purchasing power are also being hit by the high level of unemployment, which is the result of successive years of recession.

Public debt, he added, "has risen sharply in 2020, to 120% of GDP, and is high, but should moderate given the speed of GDP growth as a function of debt growth."