Rising temperatures could lead to a drop in global GDP

Aumento de temperatura pode levar à queda do PIB mundial

A study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change reveals that the world could lose around 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if global temperatures increase by 3°C.

"If we take into account that warmer years also bring changes in rainfall and temperature variability, it turns out that the estimated impact of rising temperatures is worse than previously thought," explained economist Paul Waidelich, from ETH Zurich, who led the international team responsible for the study, released on Wednesday by the Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich, Switzerland.

The paper, which used projections from 33 global climate models, argues that future economic growth depends on rigorous action on the climate, maintaining that limiting the Earth's warming to 1.5ºC above the average values of the pre-industrial era instead of 3ºC could reduce global losses due to climate change by two thirds.

"Our results show that the cost of climate inaction is substantial," said Sonia Seneviratne, from ETH Zurich and co-author of the study.

"Some still say that the world can't afford rapid decarbonization, but the global economy will also suffer the impacts of climate change," insisted the vice-chair of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

A global warming of 3ºC increases the risk of torrential rains all over the planet, which reduces the world's GDP by an average of 0.2%, which, given the current size of the economy, would be equivalent to 200 billion dollars.

Among the extreme weather phenomena considered, heatwaves have the greatest impact, with the study suggesting that "almost half of the economic damage due to global warming of 3°C could be related to extreme heat".

The total cost of climate change is likely to be much higher, since its study does not include the non-economic impacts of phenomena such as droughts and sea level rises.

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