The return of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and other international creditors to Mozambique will create conditions for cushioning the country's high public debt, say some political analysts, who, however, warn that if the conflict in Cabo Delgado is not resolved the debt could worsen.

Official data indicate that in the second quarter of 2022 the total stock of public debt stood at $14.2 billion, representing an increase of 0.3 percent over the first quarter of the same year.

For some political analysts, the new wave of international support for Mozambique, mobilized mainly by the resumption of aid from the Bretton Woods institutions, gives some reassurance to creditors and investors.

To VOA, economist António Francisco considers that one of the evaluations of the rating agencies was the participation of partners in Mozambique's development process, "this condition has now been overcome and therefore gives some tranquility to the financiers, so the country already has a cushion to be able to bear it.

For that economist, all the accumulation of commitments and some aspects may eventually result in the increase of the debt next year, besides the fact that it is not known how the Government is going to solve the dispute in London with creditors, which, in some way, is in the process of being solved, but which, probably will be in the sense of assuming its responsibilities.

Meanwhile, the fact that most of Mozambique's public debt is in dollars puts pressure on national currencies and makes the burden of this debt heavier, especially when some of the loans are applied in investments that contribute little to the country's development.

Some rating agencies consider that Mozambique is one of the sub-Saharan African countries with the highest percentage of debt in foreign currency, around 84 percent.

For political analysts, this is a serious situation with several implications, among them the volatility in the exchange market, due to variations in the major currencies, because when the country wants to pay the debt it has to buy dollars, and according to economist Roberto Tibana "we know that our trade balance is not very good.

For his part, economist Lucas Fabião Cossa believes that the high public debt is making the living conditions of Mozambicans more difficult, and regrets that the Executive has not paid much attention to warnings about the gravity of the situation of progressive indebtedness.

Cossa says that since around 84 percent of Mozambique's debt is denominated in foreign currency, this means that in a situation where the main international currencies appreciate, the debt also increases, and so does the servicing of this debt.

And the war, as economist António Francisco points out, may be one of the factors that aggravates Mozambique's public debt "because we don't know how it is being sustained, we don't know much about the budget, the bill for the commitments to the SADC military and Rwanda, and I don't think there is much transparency about it.

"It may be that these costs are being sustained on a bilateral level or through more direct mechanisms, but in a way, this will worsen the debt, in that it is a war that has no solution in sight," emphasizes that economist.