Shipping consultancy Drewry has revised upwards its forecast for container shipping companies' profits to $150 billion by 2021. The expectation is that by 2022 profits will be slightly better. Congested traffic and growing demand drive freight rates higher and higher, and profits tend to follow suit.

Drewry found that in the second quarter alone the combined EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of container shipping operators reached $39.2 billion, 11 times more than in the same period of 2020.

The increase in fuel prices and the rise in shipping costs did not counteract this growth trend. Most companies increased their operating margins compared to the first quarter, with some even exceeding 50% profitability.

At the same time, Drewry revised upwards its forecast of the average increase in shipments from the 46% estimated in June to 126%, as a result of the larger-than-expected rise in the spot market in the third quarter and the delayed normalization of supply chains.

The unprecedented spot market is driving up prices for long-term contracts, and Drewry predicts this will contribute to 2022 being even better for ocean carriers. By pricing rates almost as high as the current spot market, carriers are securing a very high base for earnings going into next year.

On the other hand, Drewry expects the disorganization and congestion plaguing the containerized supply chain to continue through the fourth quarter of 2022.

"The declining situation makes us think the problem is much deeper than feared, with the pandemic advancing the latent crisis within certain sectors," warned Simon Heaney, senior director of container research. For carriers, this means sustained support for high rates and for shippers, it means another year of higher prices and reduced service levels.