Energy consultancy WoodMackenzie warned today that oil companies face many difficulties in their operations in sub-Saharan Africa and pointed out that there could be major revisions to projects, including Eni's investment in gas in Mozambique.

"Across the continent, projects are facing increasing difficulties, from energy transition concerns to international financing challenges, putting a number of exploration projects at risk; 2023 could be the year we see major revisions to projects that have long been in the pipeline," write WoodMackenzie analysts in a report on the big issues for 2023 in sub-Saharan Africa.

The document, sent to investors and to which Lusa has had access, states that "the future of East Africa is uncertain, the Area 1 project in Mozambique remains under 'force majeure' and we see no urgency on the part of the operator TotalEnergies to resume".

WoodMackenzie adds that the contractors who will be building the site and the gas production plant "will point to the new cost environment if the project resumes", making gas exploration in the north of the country more expensive, in addition to the cost of repairing the site itself, which "is likely to be large".

In its forecasts, WoodMackenzie also says that the Area 4 gas exploration project, Rovuma LNG, "will abandon the onshore exploration shared with Area 1" and argues that "the efficient and safe offshore exploration of Coral Floating LNG [on a floating platform] allowed Mozambique to join the group of gas exporting countries in November".

Oil operators in Africa, they conclude, "can take advantage of opportunities to cut losses from more marginal or complicated fields, and in this package under review there is around 50 billion dollars [46.2 billion euros] in investment spending".

Mozambique has three development projects approved to exploit the natural gas reserves in the Rovuma basin, classified as one of the largest in the world, off the coast of Cabo Delgado.

Two of these projects are larger and involve channeling the gas from the seabed to land, cooling it in a factory and exporting it by sea in a liquid state.

One is led by TotalEnergies (Area 1 consortium) and the work progressed until it was suspended indefinitely following an armed attack in Palma, Cabo Delgado (north), in March.

The other is the still unannounced investment led by ExxonMobil and Eni (Area 4 consortium).

A third, smaller project, which is almost complete, also belongs to the Area 4 consortium and consists of a floating platform that will capture and process gas for export, directly at sea, which started up in November last year.

The floating platform is expected to produce 3.4 mtpa (million tons per year) of liquefied natural gas, Area 1 points to 13.12 mtpa and the onshore plan for Area 4 foresees 15 mtpa.

Cabo Delgado province has been terrorized since 2017 by armed rebels, with some attacks claimed by the extremist group Islamic State.

The conflict has caused more than 3,100 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project, and more than 817,000 displaced people, according to the Mozambican authorities.

Since July 2022, an offensive by government troops with the support of Rwanda, later joined by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has made it possible to increase security, recovering several areas where rebels were present, notably the town of Mocímboa da Praia, which had been occupied since August 2020. (Lusa)