Russia's oil production could fall by as much as a quarter as early as next month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly report this Wednesday.

The invasion of Ukraine has prompted Western countries to move forward with a series of economic sanctions on Moscow, leading several companies to cut their relations with the country, many of them energy companies such as Shell, Total Energies and Prio, which have announced cuts in Russian oil imports.

As reported by the newspaper Negócios, the IEA estimates that the situation will cause a worldwide drop of 35%, in 2022, in estimates of demand for crude oil. The estimated increase for this year was 3.23 million barrels per day for a total average of 100.6 million per day. The figures have come down to an increase of only 2.11 million per day, giving a total of 99.7 million barrels per day.

The agency indicates in the report that the price hike caused by reduced demand and production in Russia "will also increase inflation, domestic electricity prices, and is likely to provoke reactions in central bank policies - such as a negative impact on economic growth."

The IEA further estimates that high prices will impact gasoline and jet fuel more than diesel fuel, with fuel supply shortfalls expected as refiners face difficulties replacing refined products coming from Russia.

"Filling the product gap will be a major challenge for refiners, who will struggle to source alternative feedstocks and face limited operational refining capacity," the report indicates, stressing that "global crude will not recover to pre-pandemic levels, remaining below 2017 values."

Thus, world markets now face a deficit over the next two quarters instead of the surpluses previously forecast, the agency stresses, which will force countries to further deplete their oil stocks that are already at the lowest level since 2014.