The United Nations Economic Commission this Tuesday revised downward the growth forecast for African economies, now anticipating a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion of 3.6%, two tenths less than in January.

According to the World Economic Situation and Prospects report update, released in New York, United Nations (UN) analysts put growth at 3.6% this year and 3.7% in 2022, warning that "the covid-19 pandemic has dealt a severe blow to sustainable development prospects in Africa, exacerbating unemployment, poverty and inequality."

The report, as it relates to Africa, states that per capita income, i.e. income per person taking into account the country's economic growth, is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024, and points out that a strengthening global outlook, increased exports, and rising commodity prices are key to sustaining the recovery of the economies.

South Africa, with 2.8% growth this year, Nigeria, with 1.8%, and Egypt, with 1.8%, are some examples of the difficulty the region's largest economies are facing in recovering from the effects of the pandemic.

"The outlook for Africa is clouded by large downside risks," the analysts note, exemplifying that "progress on vaccines is by far the slowest in the world, with only 1.2 doses administered per 100 population," meaning that because of the slow pace and new variants of the virus, "new waves of infection could trigger new lock-in and limit the expected near-term recovery."

On public finances, the UN highlights the importance of increasing international aid in a context of high debt and reduced revenues, and recalls that there are 17 economies in 'debt distress', i.e., with a debt considered unsustainable taking into account economic growth.

"The extension of the moratorium [on debt payments] until December under the Debt Service Suspension Initiative is providing some support, but more debt relief and more concessional financing is needed," the analysts conclude.