Author: Jorge Zamba, journalist and professor.

The possibilities for analyzing what is to come in Mozambique are exhausted. The current post-election conflict is testing the hegemony of the historic party - Frelimo. There have already been more than 11 deaths as a result of clashes between the police and demonstrators. Mozambique is making headlines in the international media and the European Union and the United Nations are calling for the electoral truth to be re-established, while countries like China, South Africa and Zimbabwe are congratulating Frelimo and its candidate, Daniel Francisco Chapo, on their victory, which is contested by the opposition.

The confrontation between the demonstrators and the police is at an alarming level that is almost reminiscent of a war scenario where the military has the task of taking aim at the population without remorse. On the 26th, in Macanhelas, one of the districts of Niassa, the police fired at close range at supporters of Venâncio Mondlane, an independent candidate supported by the Podemos party. In the images circulating on social media, a seriously wounded man is dragging himself along the ground in an attempt to escape the bullets. This reinforces the fact that the police have been instructed to impose order with guns.

In the face of the chaos, questions of a sentimental and even analytical nature still prevail, although for the latter it is partly challenging to do so because I am Mozambican and therefore run the risk of incurring objectivity, which science, especially social science, condemns. (I) Will Frelimo risk a long social upheaval by negotiating with Venâncio Mondlane and the Podemos party? Judging by the course of the demonstrations, Venâncio Mondlane is willing to resort to other strategies to force the regime to give in. (II) Governments of national unity are not effective. Normally, they serve to avoid a civil war, in which case the regime camouflages an agreement with the opposition by handing over some ministerial portfolios. (III) In the event of negotiations, would Frelimo be willing to hand over some of the most important ministerial portfolios?

A middle ground is needed so that both sides understand the impact of a probable civil war on a country like Mozambique. 

In public opinion or precisely for Venâncio Mondlane's supporters, the mother condition is that Frelimo leaves power in favor of the charismatic leader, which is unlikely, since for the liberationist parties, handing over power is an existential death and also a threat to sovereignty and social stability, because for these regimes the opposition represents the agenda of foreign interests. The last point is actually a paranoia to legitimize their stay in power.

The other less debated but relevant point is how to frame the post-election conflict in Mozambique and how the regime, depending on how it reads geopolitics in terms of its interests, can discuss the agreement from an exogenous perspective. The world is already undoubtedly polarized: we have the West, which has traditionally dominated and influenced the global South since the colonial yoke until the present day. Countries like China and Russia are also emerging to counterbalance Western hegemony, especially in Africa.

As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, Frelimo can turn its back on the West and not easily accept international pressure to publish public notices and/or favor Venâncio Mondlane in negotiations for a percentage that will allow him to balance power and influence public policy. We have the experience of last year's local elections, 2023, where the government, before the Constitutional Council announced the results, met with the majority of European Union ambassadors to appeal for non-interference.

Finally, Mozambique finds itself in a situation of social chaos that goes beyond the limits of democratic will or the discussion of electoral transparency. The fundamental issue at the moment is to guarantee the maintenance of peace. Here lies the sentimental order mentioned in the third paragraph. A middle ground is needed so that both sides understand the impact of a probable civil war on a country like Mozambique. With the discovery and exploitation of natural resources and the widespread misfortune of the population, it would turn the country into a center of economic interests: Cabo Delgado is one of the irrefutable examples.