The rise in fuel and food prices has led Oxford Economics Africa to revise its economic growth forecast for Mozambique. The consultancy announced Wednesday that inflation in the country is expected to be close to 9% against the previous 7.3% forecast for the full year.

According to economic experts, cited by RTP, the strengthening exchange rate alone will not be enough to offset the impact of recent global fuel and food price increases on consumer prices.

The National Institute of Statistics (INE) said, this Wednesday, that inflation in the month of February 2021 was 6.84%, signaling a retreat from January.

Year-on-year inflation in January had been 7.8% and dropped 96 basis points the following month, according to the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) bulletin, published last week.

According to INE, inflation in Mozambique is being influenced mainly by food and beverage prices.

Despite these casualties in the Mozambican economy, analysts expect that the country will suffer few consequences because of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

"As Mozambique has no significant trade with Russia or Ukraine, export revenues are likely to receive a boost due to higher prices for aluminum, coal and natural gas in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine," the analysts point out.

According to the experts, "the increase in government and corporate revenues due to higher raw material prices, and the consequent increase in corporate and public consumption, should offset the impact of reduced disposable household income caused by increased consumption and rising inflation.

The CPI figures are calculated by INE from the price variations of a basket of goods and services, with data collected in the cities of Maputo, Beira and Nampula.