The economic policy consultancy Oxford Economics Africa predicts that Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory will negatively impact Mozambique's economy, driving up wheat prices, and that the same could happen in Angola.

On the other hand, Oxford expects that the conflict between these two European countries, which is already impacting several economic sectors in the European Union, will benefit the economies of these two African countries with the increase in gas and oil prices, respectively.

"Both Angola and Mozambique have a very limited level of trade with Russia and Ukraine; Angola imports wheat and yeast from Russia, while Mozambique imports a significant amount of wheat and a small amount of refined oil from Russia," said the Oxford Economics Africa analyst who follows the economies of these two countries, quoted by lusa.

"It seems that, at least for now, Angola is generally benefiting from higher oil and gas prices, which are partly driven by the conflict," Gerrit van Rooyen said in remarks from Paarl, South Africa.

"Higher oil prices are positive for government revenues and the value of the kwanza," the analyst added. If the increase is sustained, "this could increase investment in Angola and lower debt levels faster than previously anticipated."

"If gas prices remain high due to the conflict, this will be positive for investments in Mozambique's liquefied natural gas [LNG]," his analysis continues, as "the profits from natural gas in the Rovuma basin could be greater than the risk of armed extremist insurgency in the region."

Despite the benefits for the public accounts of the two Portuguese-speaking states, van Rooyen points out that for the average citizen, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages.

"Higher oil and wheat prices are bad news for consumers, as inflation, which is already high in these countries, particularly in Angola, is expected to increase more than initially predicted," he concluded.

Wheat and yeast are two of Russia's top exports to Angola and Mozambique, according to data from an economic research center sponsored by Harvard University. In the case of Angola, they accounted for over 30% of Russia's purchases in 2019, followed by stamps and yeast, while in Mozambique, wheat accounted for over 75% of Russia's imports, followed by fertilizers, which accounted for 18% of the total by value.