"We forecast a reduction in growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year, in a context where high inflation constrains household spending and slowing external demand influences exports," say the analysts at this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.

In the analysis, Fitch Solutions says that "by 2023 growth should increase to 3.7%, with price pressures easing and demand from China recovering."

About Angola, the analysts write that "GDP growth accelerated from 2.4% in the last quarter of last year to 2.6% in the first quarter of this year, partly driven by the oil sector."

By the end of the year, GDP expansion should accelerate, leading overall national wealth to increase by 3.5%, the fastest growth since 2014, essentially "on the back of larger gains in the oil sector due to accelerating production at several small projects operated by TotalEnergies and BP, which boost exports."

For this year, Fitch Solutions anticipates inflation to fall to 20% from 25.7% in 2021, which "eases the pressure on consumer purchasing power", but warns that while the decline in inflation to 14% next year will be positive for consumer spending, oil production is forecast to fall by 3.5% due to chronic disinvestment and the drying up of wells, which will cause real GDP growth to slow to 1.8% in 2023″. (Lusa)