OPEC announced on Wednesday that it is maintaining its estimates for world oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025, at 2.2% and 1.8% respectively, despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

For this year, analysts at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predict global demand of 102.1 million barrels per day, while for next year they estimate that it will be close to 104.4 million barrels per day.

"However, this forecast is subject to many uncertainties, including global economic developments," says OPEC's January monthly report, published this Wednesday in Vienna.

"It remains to be seen how current geopolitical developments and challenges related to global trade, including tariffs and recent difficulties in international shipping, will influence the outlook in the short term," say the analysts from the 12-nation oil group.

Analysts refer to the current tensions in the Red Sea, on the way to or from the Suez Canal, where Yemen's Huthi militia is attacking commercial ships in alleged support of the Palestinian cause.

As for global economic growth, the driving force behind any increase in oil consumption, OPEC analysts maintain a rate of 2.6% for this year and 2.8% for 2025.

"This positive trajectory is in line with expectations that global inflation will continue to decline through 2024 and into 2025, especially in the major economies," the report explains.

For the United States, analysts predict a growth rate of 1% this year and 1.5% in 2025, while the eurozone is expected to grow by just 0.5% and 1.2% respectively

Growth is expected to be strongest in the two big emerging economies, China and India. While China is expected to grow by 4.8 % this year and 4.6 % in 2025, India's economy will grow by 5.9% in 2024 and up to 6.1% next year.

OPEC experts estimate a demand for crude oil of 28.5 million barrels per day this year and 29.0 million barrels per day in 2025, in both cases higher than the production forecast by the group.

As for OPEC's oil production, the report, quoted by the Negócios newspaper, points to 27.0 million barrels per day in 2023, 2.6% less than in 2022.

In the case of Venezuela, the only Latin American country in the group, production increased between 2022 and 2023 by 8.8%, from 688,000 barrels per day to 749,000 barrels per day, according to independent sources cited by OPEC.

Saudi Arabia, the dominant country in OPEC, has reduced its production between 2022 and 2023 by 8.5%, from 10.5 million barrels per day to 9.6 million barrels per day, in an attempt to stabilize oil prices on the markets.

The reference price of the OPEC basket, calculated as an average of 12 oils, fell by 7% between November and December 2023, to 79 dollars per barrel.

The reference prices for Europe (Brent) and WTI (West Texas Intermediate, USA) fell slightly less, with decreases of between 6.8% and 5.7% respectively, OPEC concluded in its January report.