The African Development Bank (AfDB) predicts that the Southern African region will grow by 3.2% in 2021 and 2.4% in 2022 if the covid-19 pandemic slows down, significantly.

A report of the ADB on the Economic Outlook of Southern Africa, released on November 12, and consulted by MZNews, states, however, that the African region suffered from the pandemic like so many others. Therefore, economic success is strictly linked to the success of the vaccination rate.

These ADB estimates fall short of forecasts for 2020, a year in which by far Southern Africa suffered the worst contraction on the continent, 6.3%.

Quoted in the paper, the ADB Director-General for the Southern Africa Region said that "the magnitude of the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the countries of Southern Africa cannot be overstated," pointing to the fact that poverty levels, inequality and unemployment, and other economic impediments will worsen.

Although Mozambique is not cited in the document as one of the countries in the region affected by the stagnation of tourism activities, the ADB official acknowledged that the pandemic had more devastating effects on the economy and production in nations heavily dependent on tourism, such as Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia and Zimbabwe. The pandemic also devastated countries that depend on exports of raw materials.

The lead author of the study and Director of the Country Economic Department at the ADB, Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, said that last year all regions of Africa grew, except Eastern Africa. However, as a whole, the continent suffered a recession, and in any case "the good news is that there is a recovery and the outlook is positive.

The positive prospect of economic growth in the southern African region may stagnate if the economy is not diversified, advances the document. In the particular case of raw materials, the ADB says that they play an excessive role, are the exemplary cases of Mozambique, Zambia and Angola.

The outlook for the region's debt is of moderate concern, considering that pandemic-related spending has led to an increase in public expenditure. The report forecasts gross public debt to increase slightly.

The Bank's experts propose a series of short, medium and long-term policies to nurse Southern African economies back to health.