Tourism in Europe will continue on the road to recovery in 2022, albeit at a slower pace than previously forecast, in the face of uncertainty due to pandemic and war, anticipates the European Travel Commission (ETC) in the latest quarterly report.

While domestic travel on the old continent is projected to recover fully this year, international arrivals in Europe are projected to be 30% below pre-pandemic levels and not to exceed them until 2025.

According to the bulletin "European Tourism Trends and Prospects", quoted by the newspaper Negócios, despite continuing on negative ground, the cumulative data for the first three months of the year show that in all destinations analyzed the number of arrivals is estimated to have been 43% lower, on a weighted basis, compared to 2019, which still translates as an improvement compared to the decline of more than 60% recorded in the previous quarter.

Based on data reported in February, Serbia (-11% y-o-y) and Turkey (-12% y-o-y) were the countries with the fastest recovery levels. This is followed by Bulgaria (-18%), Austria (-33%), Spain and Monaco (both with -34%) and Croatia (-37%).

"During the pandemic, the European tourism sector became adept at dealing with uncertainty and challenges. The industry is steadily recovering from covid-19 and there is reason for optimism. However, European tourism will need to maintain this courage throughout the year as Europe continues to suffer from the significant consequences of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict," says ETC President Luis Araújo, launching an appeal to the European Union institutions to "continue to provide sufficient and timely financial aid and other support to the sector, especially for destinations heavily dependent on tourism from Russia and Ukraine."

According to the report by the ETC, which represents 34 national tourism organizations in Europe, the pandemic remains the main factor in influencing consumers' travel plans. Nevertheless, vaccines as well as health protocols have made international travelers less hesitant to visit Europe and with an easing of restrictions, such as the end of the requirement to submit a negative covid-19 test in many countries, Western Europe is profiled to become the best performing region overall this year, although forecasts indicate it will be 24% below 2019 levels.

The United States maintains the best performance as a long-haul travel market, with average annual growth from the United States to Europe reaching 33.6% in the 2021-2026 period. In light of the forecasts, the largest increase will be recorded in the north of the old continent (+41.5%).

Regardless of the numbers, by 2022, transatlantic travel between the United States and Europe will continue to be a key driver of recovery in the European travel industry.

Conversely, there is still no sign of when visitors arriving from China might return to pre-pandemic levels. China, the largest source of tourists, is currently dealing with an outbreak of the Omicron variant in major cities such as Shanghai, where authorities have imposed strict lockdowns and mandatory mass testing of millions of people to try to contain the spread of the virus.

According to ETC, over 50% of destinations saw declines of over 90% in tourist arrivals from China compared to 2019.

The war in Ukraine, which erupted on February 24 with Russia's invasion, will also have an impact, starting with the reduction of tourist trips from the two markets, with the neighboring countries and especially those most dependent on both being the most affected in the short term.

According to ECT, the conflict will, in fact, postpone the recovery in Eastern Europe until 2025, with the number of visitors this year expected to be 43% lower than in 2019.

The impact of the war could mainly hurt destinations like Cyprus, Montenegro, Latvia, Finland, Estonia and Lithuania, where Russians accounted for at least 10% of total travelers in 2019.