Russia is close to default and bankruptcy

Financial ratings agency Standard & Poor's said on Thursday that Russia could go into default and, as a result, start missing payments to major creditors.

According to our source, Russia is rapidly losing its ability to pay its debts and is now only two rating levels away from being considered a defaulter.

In one fell swoop, S&P cut Russia's rating from BB+ to CCC-, two levels, with only two more steps to go before it reaches class D (default). The trend for the rating assigned yesterday (CCC-) is "negative". Bankruptcy is thus ever closer, according to the agency's parameters.

"Russia's military conflict with Ukraine has prompted a new round of government sanctions from G7 countries, including those targeting the Central Bank of Russia's (BCR) foreign exchange reserves," Standard & Poor's says.

"This has rendered much of Russia's reserves inaccessible, undermining the BCR's ability to act as lender of last resort and undermining what had been - until recently - Russia's most prominent credit strength: its net external liquidity position."

S&P notes that "to mitigate the resulting high volatility in the exchange rate and financial markets, and to preserve remaining foreign currency buffers, the Russian authorities have introduced - among other measures - capital control measures that we understand may restrict non-resident government bond holders from receiving timely interest and principal payments," it warns.

Therefore, "we downgraded our long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings in Russia to 'CCC-' from 'BB+' and 'BBB-', respectively, and kept them on watch, but trending negative. They may go lower in the government credit category, basically.

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