The world may experience the greatest oil shortage not seen for decades, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) quoted today by the portal expresso. This projection is due to the sanctions applied to Russia by the West because of the invasion of Ukraine.

According to the IEA's monthly oil market report, released this Wednesday, there is a possibility that a significant portion of Russian production will disappear from the market without OPEC showing a willingness to compensate for it.

In the document, the IEA sharply revised downward its global demand forecasts for this year, due to war-induced oil price hikes that will reduce economic growth.

The agency, specifically, cut the consumption projections between the second and fourth quarters by 1.3 million barrels per day that it had made just a month ago, and that means 950,000 fewer barrels per day on average in 2022 as a whole.

This cut means that world demand will remain at 99.7 million barrels per day, 2.1 million more than in 2021.

At the center of all these accounts is the IEA's warning of the real danger of oil shortages.

The authors of the study assume that as of April, three of Russia's eight million barrels per day of oil exports will disappear from the market due to the sanctions, but also because many of its regular buyers are avoiding Russian oil.

But things may not stop there, so the IEA doesn't rule out that public condemnation of Russia's attack on Ukraine will increase that number even further, given the behaviors being observed that have already led to Russian oil selling at record discount prices.

The problem is that, at the same time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies declared at their meeting last March 2 that there is no supply shortage and that they only plan to release an additional 400,000 barrels per day into the market.