The UN warned Friday that global CO2 emissions are poised to grow by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010, instead of falling by 50% if treaty limits were met.

The figures, revealed as part of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, belong to a preliminary UN analysis and are derived from the new commitments made by 14 countries and the update of the 166 parties that have upwardly revised their targets, out of the total 193 parties that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Nevertheless, this projection is slightly lower than the 16% increase in CO2 emissions for the end of this decade, estimated before the 14 new Nationally Assessed Contributions, according to information distributed by the head of the UN Climate department, Mexican Patricia Espinosa.

The commitments used to update these forecasts come from Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Chad, China, Ghana, Iraq, Japan, Nauru, Pakistan, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Uzbekistan.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to reach 414.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2021, a figure that is 49% higher than pre-industrial levels, when it was 277 ppm.