Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts say the Chinese territory may keep its borders closed through 2022 as the country prepares to host the Winter Olympics and host several conferences, as well as the fact that the local vaccine, Sinovac, offers limited protection against covid-19.
The researchers anticipate that and fortify their Covid Zero strategy, according to a note published on Tuesday.
"With [flu] transmission typically higher in the winter months, it is possible that border restrictions could be kept intact until spring 2023," the analysts wrote.
China has adopted severe restrictive measures to contain further outbreaks of covid-19 and have led to disruptions in the production chain and travel, and a drop in consumption, adding pressure on an economy already affected by a slowdown in the housing market.
On the other hand, analyst Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group that analyzes political risk, expects that measures to contain the pandemic in China will not succeed as they did in 2020.
"The ability to live with the virus, easily transmissible that is not so fatal, is the exact opposite of China's Zero Covid policy, and estre plan will not work, but they will persevere," he said.
Beijing has promised to shift the focus of its policy this year to stabilize economic growth and avoid risks.