Oil product consumption is expected to average 99.2 million barrels per day (bpd), up 1.8% from 2021, but a tenth less than it had forecast in June, according to a forecast shared today by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

This downward revision is included in the monthly report on the oil market, which justifies it with the fact that the latest data show lower-than-expected consumption in the three main regions of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 'OECD' (Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific).

According to the analysis, high prices are having an impact and explaining the declines in April in the major OECD countries.

This is despite a recovery in May in other emerging countries, and in particular in China, after the confinements in the previous months due to the pandemic. But this is not enough to reverse the general trend.

Looking ahead to 2023, with the specter of a possible recession that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) no longer rules out, expectations are also lower than predicted in May by the IEA itself, with an increase in crude oil demand that will be limited to 2.2% to 101.3 million bpd.

These projections are clearly lower than those of OPEC, which in its monthly report published on Tuesday forecast an increase of 3.47% in 2022 to 100.29 million bpd and 2.7% in 2023 to 103 million bpd.

On the demand side, the most striking thing is that, contrary to what Western countries are trying to do by adopting sanctions against Moscow in the energy sector, Russia's crude oil exports are holding up and, above all, with revenues growing significantly.

Specifically, Russian exports fell by only 250,000 barrels in June to 7.4 million bpd.

And as oil prices have risen, particularly since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in late February, Russia's revenues increased by $700 million in one month to $20.4 billion, up 40% from the previous year.

Russia's "surprising" resistance to sanctions, which allowed global oil production to rise 690,000 barrels per day in June to 99.5 million, prompted the IEA to revise upward its forecast for oil supplies this year, which it now believes will average 100.1 million before reaching a record 101.1 million in 2023.

Between June and December, an additional 1.8 million bpd is expected to enter the market, of which only 380,000 bpd will come from the OPEC+ cartel, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and 10 allies, led by Russia.

This means that the rest of the producers will contribute an additional 1.4 million bpd, especially the United States.

In the short term, one of the issues that, according to the IEA analysis, could once again create tension in the market is the reduction in available production margins from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which could be reduced to 2.2 million barrels per day in August with the full lifting of the cuts applied by OPEC+.

At the same time, world stockpiles of crude oil increased by only five million barrels in May, following the 100 million barrel increase in April, and are at a relatively low level.