The situation in Cabo Delgado is still volatile, despite the progress made by the joint operation between Mozambican and Rwandan troops, which enabled the recovery and control of Mucojo, an important trading post in Macomia, taken over four years ago by a group of insurgents.

The warning comes from some Mozambican analysts in reaction to the celebration proclaimed by the governor of Cabo Delgado, Valige Tauabo, who confirmed the win at the 12th session of the provincial government last Wednesday (18), saying that the administrative post of Mucojo was recovered in August after a coordinated operation by the armed forces.

It should be remembered that the Rwandan forces have been resized to operate in the Macomia district, following the withdrawal in July 2024 of the military contingent from the Southern African countries mission (SAMIM), deployed in mid-2021 to help Mozambique fight the group linked to the Islamic State.

"In Mucojo, we don't advise the population to be present at the moment, because we are still re-establishing a good atmosphere," following the success of the joint force operation, said Valige Tauabo, stressing that this is aimed at ensuring that there is no human damage from homemade mines used by the insurgents in recent months.

He also discouraged the population from returning to the areas of Mucojo, Quiterajo and Pangane because of suspicions of hidden war material. He noted that the group has migrated to the Muidumbe district, where it continues to carry out attacks.

"The pursuit that is taking place, through our Defense and Security Forces, Local Force, Tanzanian and Rwandan Force, puts the terrorists in a corner," he said.

However, Mozambican scholars, who have been following the insurgency since it began in 2017, praise the joint forces' gains in Mucujo, but do not expect major changes in the security paradigm of Cabo Delgado province.

In a publication by the Voice of America (VOA), sociologist João Feijó notes that several villages in these areas were considered pseudo-terrorist, where state forces and public services were not allowed.

For political analyst Dércio Alfazema, "the Mozambican forces have been advancing on the ground, and this retaking of the Mucojo base is a positive, very satisfactory sign, but they need to be on their guard".

"Terrorism is still a problem that hasn't been solved in Cabo Delgado," warns the analyst.

On the other hand, Alfazema notes that in the electoral context, the defense forces must work to ensure that the population exercises its right to vote.

"We have a democracy and conditional elections in Cabo Delgado, we all need to be aware of this, and some districts are critical, such as Quissanga, where registration took place outside the electoral calendar and in a conditional manner," he recalls. "The parties are working, they are campaigning, but the threat and risk of any extreme situation occurring is always present."

The province of Cabo Delgado, rich in natural gas and precious minerals, has been facing an armed insurgency since October 2017, with attacks claimed by movements associated with the extremist group Islamic State.

(Photo DR)