The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday that global demand for oil will reduce this year, while predicting severe shortages, despite uncertainty over Russian oil.
This downward revision, explains a report from the institution, reflects the impact of the confinements imposed in China due to the emergence of Covid-19 outbreaks.
The IEA noted that in March, the Chinese market took in 730,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than expected, and projects the difference to be 925,000 bpd this month and 690,000 bpd in May.
In addition, the first quarter data show that worldwide consumption was also below expectations, particularly in the United States.
Adding all these together, the agency's experts now believe that global demand will be about 99.4 million bpd this year, 1.9 million more than in 2021, but 260,000 less than they had forecast a month ago.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its previous estimate by 410,000 bpd in its monthly report released last Tuesday, putting the projection for 2021 as a whole at 100.5 million bpd, which would be 3.67 million more than last year.
On the supply side, the IEA - which brings together most developed OECD member countries - points out that Russian oil production and exports continue to decline, in the context of the war in Ukraine and sanctions imposed or planned by the West.
According to IEA calculations, by early April production had already fallen by about 700,000 bpd, and this trend is expected to intensify, averaging 1.5 million bpd in April and about three million in May.
It is true that some buyers, especially in Asia, are taking advantage of the situation to buy Russian oil at significant discounts.
But the IEA stresses that there is no sign of an increase in the quantities imported by China, where Covid-19 has reduced refinery activity and oil demand.
The IEA describes the production increase announced by the OPEC+ alliance for May as "modest," after recalling that in March the increase was only 40,000 barrels per day, "far below" the 400,000 that had been planned and 1.5 million less than its target.