The Mozambican government forecasts economic growth of 5.5% for 2024, higher than estimated for this year, and an inflation rate of 7.0%, and expects to maintain a "conservative" monetary policy next year.

In the documents supporting the proposal for the Economic and Social Plan of the State Budget (PESOE) for 2024, to which Lusa had access today, the government foresees a national macroeconomic situation for next year that "will continue to show positive signs of recovery, despite the challenges of guaranteeing security in areas affected by terrorism, associated with the country's growing vulnerability to climate change".

In this context, the document adds, the economic growth rate for 2024 "is projected at 5.5%, sustained by the positive performance expected in the extractive industry, agriculture and transport sectors".

Annual inflation in Mozambique fell to 4.9 % in August and 4.6% in September, after 5.7 % in July, explained, according to the central bank, "mainly by the fall in food prices, favored by the extension of the fresh season, in a context of stability of the metical."

On September 22, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Mozambique had already decided to keep the policy interest rate at 17.25%, one of the tight monetary policy measures underway to contain rising inflation.

Among the "main macroeconomic assumptions" defined in the PESOE, the document adds, is the goal of reaching 9,703 million dollars in exports of goods and the constitution of Net International Reserves (NIR) of 2,235 million dollars, "corresponding to three months of coverage of imports of goods and non-factorial services, excluding megaprojects".

The macroeconomic scenario of 5.5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is still 0.5 points higher than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast.

According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), Mozambique's GDP grew by 4.2% and 4.7% in the first and second quarters of 2023, respectively, representing accumulated growth of around 4.4%. (Lusa)