The world economy could lose more than four trillion dollars due to the impact of covid-19 on tourismThe United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported this Wednesday.

In an information published in conjunction with the World Tourism Organization (WTO), it is noted that the losses are greatest in developing countries, as the absence of a widespread vaccination program against covid-19 keeps tourists away from these regions.

According to the document, the drop in international tourism due to the pandemic could cause a loss of "more than four trillion dollars in global GDP [gross domestic product] during the years 2020 and 2021."

The estimated loss is due to the pandemic's direct impact on tourism and its effect on closely related sectors.

The report, published in conjunction with the United Nations' WTO, states that international tourism and its sectors "will suffer an estimated loss of $2.4 trillion by 2020 following a sharp decline in international tourist visits."

And for this year the estimates are not much better, admitting a "similar loss", and the recovery of the tourism sector will depend "to a large extent" on the global application of the covid-19 vaccines.

"The world needs a global vaccination effort that protects workers, mitigates adverse social effects, and that strategic decisions are made regarding tourism, taking into account possible structural changes," UNCTAD Secretary-General Isabelle Durant was quoted in the statement.

For his part, WTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said tourism "is a lifeline for millions of people" and moving forward with vaccination "to protect communities and support the safe resumption of tourism is critical to restoring jobs and generating much needed resources, especially in developing countries," many of which depend heavily on international tourism.

According to the report, vaccination against covid-19 "is more pronounced in some countries than others, so the economic losses from tourism" are minor in most developed countries, but worsen "in developing countries, where the absence of vaccines drives away tourists."

Vaccination rates against covid-19 are uneven among countries, ranging from less than 1% of the population in some countries to more than 60% in others.

This asymmetry in vaccination has an economic impact on developing countries, as they can account for up to 60% of the world's GDP losses.

The tourism sector is expected to recover "more quickly" in countries with high vaccination rates, such as France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

But experts "do not expect to return to pre-pandemic international tourism flow levels until 2023 or even later," according to the WTO. The main obstacles are travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, people's low confidence in traveling, and a poor economic environment.

For this year, the UNCTAD report points to losses of between $1.7 billion and $2.4 billion from 2019 levels.

The reduction in tourism causes an average increase of 5.5% in unskilled labor unemployment, with a range from 0% to 15% depending on the importance of tourism in economies.

Labor accounts for about 30% of tourism service expenditures in both developed and developing economies.

UNCTAD recalls that in July last year it had estimated that a shutdown of between four and 12 months of international tourism would cost the world economy between $1.2 and $3.3 trillion, including indirect costs.

However, "the losses are worse than expected," as international travel remains at low levels more than 15 months after the pandemic began.