A study led by researchers from the Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University in Sweden has concluded that the elimination of coal as an energy source is not happening fast enough to keep global warming below 2°C, as dictated by the Paris Agreement, and is heading towards 2.5°C - 3°C.

"More and more countries are promising to phase out coal from their energy systems, which is a good thing. But unfortunately their commitments are not strong enough. If we want to have a realistic chance of reaching the 2°C target, phasing out coal has to happen quickly," says Aleh Cherp, a professor at the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund University, quoted by Negócios newspaper.

O study analyzed commitments from 72 countries to phase out coal power by 2050 and concluded that they are similar and in line with historical data on how quickly coal power has been phased out in the past.

According to the researchers, quoted by the newspaper Negócios, in the best-case scenario, it is possible that the temperature increase will remain below 2°C. "But this presupposes, among other things, that both China and India begin to phase out their use of coal within five years."

What's more, this phase-out will have to be faster than has ever been historically observed in individual countries or promised by climate leaders. Or as fast as it has been in the UK, which is the fastest phase-out that has ever happened in a large country, according to the researchers. And this could create inequalities that will have to be addressed by international policies, they add.

"The countries' commitments are not enough, not even among the most ambitious countries. In addition, Russia's invasion of Ukraine may prevent some countries from phasing out coal as they have promised," stresses Jessica Jewell, a professor at Chalmers University of Technology.

Ending the use of coal energy is a key measure for mitigating climate change. The historical experience of countries indicates viable rates for phasing out coal. However, according to the study, many of the 72 national coal phase-out pledges have gone up in smoke due to more challenging socio-economic contexts and now cover 17% of the world's coal generation fleet, but their impact on emissions (up to 4.8 Gt CO2 avoided by 2050) remains small compared to what is needed to meet the Paris climate goals.

The analysis notes that up to 10% of the pledges have been weakened by the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine.