"Africa may be future Islamic State caliphate," warns UN Expert

“África pode ser futuro califado do Estado Islâmico”, alerta Especialista da ONU

The threat of the extremist group Islamic State (IS) grows every day in Africa and the continent could be "the future of the caliphate," an African security expert warned at the UN Security Council.

Martin Ewi said Tuesday that the Islamic State has "expanded its influence beyond measure" in Africa, with at least 20 countries directly feeling the extremist group's activity and more than 20 others "being used for logistics and to mobilize funds and other resources."

"They are now regional centers, which have become corridors of instability in Africa," assessed Ewi, who coordinates a transnational project on organized crime at the Institute for Security Studies in the South African city of Pretoria, and who was previously in charge of the African Union Commission's counter-terrorism program.

Quoted by Lusa, the security expert said that the Lake Chad Basin - which borders Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon - is the extremist group's largest area of operation, that certain areas in the Sahel are now "ungovernable" and that Somalia remains IS's "hot spot" in the Horn of Africa.

A recent attempt to take over or destabilize Uganda failed, but Ewi indicated that an Islamic State affiliate, the Allied Democratic Forces, "remains a serious threat."

In addition, he said, the Islamic State of Central Africa has turned some regions of Congo and Mozambique into "human slaughterhouses," he added.

The Islamic State, also known by its Arabic acronym Daesh, invaded much of Syria and Iraq in 2014 and established the so-called Islamic Caliphate in the region it controlled, covering a third of both countries, brutalizing the population for years.

The group was formally declared defeated in Iraq in 2017 after a bloody three-year battle that left tens of thousands dead and cities in ruins, but its cells continue to launch attacks in different parts of the two countries.

Ewi told a Security Council meeting on United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres' latest report on the threat posed by the Islamic State that after the extremists established the caliphate in Syria and Iraq, an international coalition mounted a military campaign to defeat IS.

Terrorism has been driven south in Africa, "but no similar coalition has been assembled to defeat Daesh in Africa, which means that the continent has been left to bear the brunt of those who are fleeing Syria and finding safe havens on the continent," he compared.

Ewi also pointed to several other factors that have made Daesh "so successful in Africa": the presence of natural resources that allow groups like Daesh to finance themselves; the poverty and lack of political will to deal with the Palestinian issue, which are the main sources of "radicalization" for many young Africans; and Daesh's ability to work with other terrorist and criminal groups on the continent.

The expert also cited the absence of new initiatives in Africa to combat terrorism and the "ostrich approach" - that is, the refusal to face reality or acknowledge the truth - of many countries that have ignored early warnings of terrorist threats.

"The international community is then called upon to help at the moment when the threat is out of control," Ewi said. "We are seeing this phenomenon occurring in Benin and Togo, which are the last coastal countries in Africa to suffer concentrated attacks by Daesh and other terrorist groups," he indicated.

Martin Ewi added that this same phenomenon was seen earlier in Mozambique when terrorism broke out, and also in Nigeria, Cameroon and many other countries "where the threat was misdiagnosed and responses were also inadequate."

To defeat Daesh in Africa, Ewi said, "the strategy must transcend the group and include its alliances with al-Qaeda and other criminal groups, including bandits, herdsmen, gangs and various organized crime groups."

The expert urged the UN Security Council to mobilize equipment and funds to strengthen the many peace support operations in different regions and ensure that sanctions on groups and individuals are enforced.

UN counter-terrorism chief Vladimir Voronkov also warned the Security Council that the threat from Daesh has been increasing since the start of the covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.

Voronkov said that the border between Iraq and Syria "remains highly vulnerable, with up to 10,000 IS fighters operating in the area."

"From there, the group launched in April a global campaign of enhanced operational activity to avenge senior leaders killed in counter-terrorism operations," it reported.

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