The consultancy Fitch Solutions considered this Monday that the delay in natural gas investments in northern Mozambique and measures to combat the covid-19 pandemic will imply "modest real growth" of 2.8% this year.

"We anticipate Mozambique's economy to emerge from recession this year, after contracting by 1.3% in 2020, with private investment recovering slightly, but we forecast modest real GDP growth of 2.8%, as delayed investment in the gas sector and persistent confinement measures weigh on the recovery of domestic demand," the analysts write.

In a note on the risks for the country, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, these analysts from the consultancy owned by the same owners of the Fitch Ratings agency also pointed out that the Mozambican central bank is expected to lower interest rates in the second half of the year.

"The Bank of Mozambique will likely see room to lower the interest rate by 100 basis points to 12.25% by the end of this year, after a surprising 300 basis point hike in January against a background of low economic growth," the analysts write.

"On the political front, we continue to flag increasing risks to stability posed by growing insurgent activity in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, which also threatens to derail the development of new gas fields," they warn.

In the analysis, Fitch Solutions also warns about the difficulties that Mozambique will have in terms of infrastructure, which are considered insufficient to drain all the natural gas production that is expected to start being produced from the middle of this decade.

"A failure to address poor infrastructure is a pressing risk to Mozambique's economy; transportation infrastructure, in particular, is currently inadequate to bring the country's rich natural resources to international markets," the analysts conclude.