The consultancy Fitch Solutions believes that sub-Saharan Africa, namely Nigeria and Mozambique, are well positioned to benefit from increased gas demand following the war between Russia and Ukraine.

"The sub-Saharan African region is well positioned to benefit from increased demand for its gas in a context where Europe is looking for secure sources of energy due to heightened tensions in Russia and Ukraine," reads an analysis of the implications of the conflict.

According to the consultancy, in a note sent to investors, and quoted by Lusa, "new liquefied natural gas projects in Mozambique and Nigeria will lead production growth in sub-Saharan Africa, with many long-term agreements already signed with buyers outside Europe, mainly in Asia.

The analysts write that "the European energy crisis has given renewed optimism" for large African projects, such as in Tanzania or Mozambique, as "markets in Europe are urgently looking to diversify their energy sources in the face of dependence on Russian gas, whose prices have risen significantly in recent months."

In 2020, Russia's Gazprom supplied over 174 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to Europe, equating to over 15% of gas demand that year, with Germany, Italy and Austria being among the largest importers of Russian gas.

Gas production in sub-Saharan Africa "is expected to increase in the coming years and rise from 79 bvm in 2021 to 149 bcm in 2031, with Mozambique and Nigeria contributing approximately 78.6% of regional production by the end of this decade," the analysts point out.

Recall that Mozambique is preparing to be one of the world's leading gas exporters when the Coral FNLG project starts up, probably in the second half of this year, but Mozambican production is only expected to increase exponentially from 2026 onwards, assuming the security situation in the north of the country stabilizes.