Moody's, the financial ratings agency, said Tuesday that Mozambique is one of the African countries most exposed to food and energy shocks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, warning of likely social and political unrest.

"Over the next 18 months, we foresee an increase in social and political risks as a result of the global shock to food and energy prices, as happened in 2008," reads an analysis of the impact of the war in Ukraine on countries in the Middle East and Africa.

In the document, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, Moody's analyzes 16 African countries and concludes that "Lebanon, Mozambique, Togo, Namibia, Jordan and Senegal are the most exposed to energy and food shocks and, therefore, the most vulnerable to social and political unrest.

To make this list, Moody's looked at energy and food dependency and compared it to the cost of food and energy imports as a percentage of GDP, considering that "these are good indicators because an increase in food and energy prices has a broad spectrum and is not limited to wheat and oil prices."

Countries with a heavy dependence on oil and food imports, already high social risks, and a governance system where countries do not have an electoral loophole to show their frustrations, are the most at risk of political and social unrest, Moody's says.

International aid, they add, "has been sent by the international donor community, but it is unlikely to be able to fully protect the most vulnerable incomes due to the likely shortage of basic commodities such as cereals."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine resulted in an increase in food and energy prices in a region that was still trying to recover from the effects of the covid-19 pandemic.

"Higher food and energy prices will drive inflation and negatively affect the balance of payments and public finances of countries that are net importers of food and oil, exacerbating macroeconomic challenges and fiscal and external imbalances," Moody's concludes.

Russia launched a military offensive in Ukraine on February 24 that has killed more than 3,000 civilians, according to the UN, which warns that the actual number is likely to be much higher.