The national economy is set to see growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of around 5 to 6 percent in the 2023 financial year. This is the outlook put forward by the study released this Wednesday in Maputo by FNB Mozambique, a subsidiary of the First Rand Group.

GDP growth will be supported by growth in sectors such as Agriculture (with a contribution of between 20 and 25 percent), Logistics; the continued recovery of Hotels and Tourism, Mining and Fishing.

The Economic Outlook for 2023 - Africa and Mozambique study was conducted by the economic research team from Rand Merchant Bank (RMB), the corporate and investment banking arm of FirstRand Bank Limited. The presentation of this study was led by Daniel Kavishe, Africa Economist at RMB and Alfredo Mondlane, Senior Credit Manager at FNB.

Growth is to be expected in a markedly adverse economic environment characterized essentially by shocks arising from geopolitical, financial and political-military uncertainties (Russia-Ukraine conflict).

The signals sent out by the economy indicate a trend towards economic recovery, following a period of deceleration caused by the fall in the prices of the main commodities on the international market and the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the export of gas from the Rovuma basin (an offshore project) is expected to continue to grow in 2023, as is that of mineral coal, resulting from the Russia-Ukrainian conflict.

"The economic narrative for Mozambique is good and we expect growth of around 5 to 6 percent. When we compare this year's economic growth with that of other years, a state of gradual recovery is visible." Alfredo Mondlane from FNB said.

Daniel Kavishe noted that inflation on the African continent will fall significantly and will remain structurally above average in the long term. Kavishe also stressed that fiscal policy could remain limited in most markets, partly due to high financing costs.

The RMB economist said that detailed monitoring of the debt restructuring process is underway in countries such as Ghana and Zambia. For this year, the economist added, forecasts point to currency volatility with a general tendency for some currencies to depreciate further.

The event was attended by around 150 participants from different sectors of the economy and aroused a lot of interest, where the audience had the opportunity to find out more and clarify themselves on topics related to the growth of the national and African economy, regionalization, volatility of the inflation rate, growth sectors and others.