The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that Russia will feel the impact of the sanctions imposed by the West due to the war in Ukraine more from 2023, while this year it will weather better.

In its update of global economic forecasts, released yesterday, the IMF improved its economic growth projections for Russia this year, although it got worse for 2023: in 2022 it expects a drop of 6% (down from 8.5% forecast in April) and in 2023 it forecasts a drop of 3.5% (down from 2.3% forecast previously).

The IMF chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, quoted by Lusa, explained this Tuesday at a press conference that there are two reasons why the Russian economy will not fall as much as previously expected.

On the one hand, the measures taken by the country to stabilize the financial sector have been "very effective" and have "helped sustain the national economy" and, on the other hand, the country has benefited from oil and gas exports to the rest of the world, especially to Europe, in the current context of rising energy prices.

In the same vein, the deputy director of the Research Department, Petya Koeva, said at that conference that domestic demand has been strong in Russia, thanks to budget support measures and also to actions to restore confidence in the financial system, "which did not seem possible at the beginning of the crisis."

In the case of 2023, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas considered that it will be in that year that Russia will feel to a greater extent the numerous sanctions passed against the country for its invasion of Ukraine.

"We believe that the impact of sanctions will lead to further deterioration in 2023," the IMF chief economist said to justify the change in forecasts for that year.