The financial rating agency Fitch Ratings has decided to maintain its Negative outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, due to financing risks, rising interest rates and pressures on the exchange rate..

In its mid-year update on the outlook for the ratings, Fitch says that "the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa remains 'deteriorating', due to the current risks of tightening financing conditions, in a context of higher domestic and international interest rates and pressures on external finances and exchange rates".

In its report released this Sunday, and quoted by Lusa, Fitch Ratings writes that "these risks are exacerbated by the countries' vulnerabilities, which have increased due to the various shocks they have faced since 2020 and the longer-standing trend of rising debt."

According to the financial rating agency's analysts, some countries, such as Angola, "benefited from higher commodity prices in 2022, but are now experiencing a partial reversal of the positive impact," particularly in terms of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.

The report adds that although the average growth forecast for this year is practically the same as last year, "the largest economies could see lower growth", as is the case with Nigeria and South Africa, the two largest in the region.

Another of the problems identified by Fitch in this mid-year analysis is the issue of debt, which has been shared by analysts, observers and international institutions: "The level and cost of debt remain a risk; the average debt-to-GDP ratio will be close to 60% this year, slightly above pre-pandemic levels, but much higher than between 2013 and 2017, when the ratio was less than 30%," they point out.

The ratio between interest payments and government revenue will rise to 14.4% this year, compared to less than 6% in 2014, and is above 20% in Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia, Kenya and Uganda, and below 20% in Angola and South Africa, points out Fitch.

Of the 20 countries covered by Fitch in sub-Saharan Africa, 12 have IMF programs, such as the Portuguese-speaking Cape Verde, which has a Positive Outlook, and Mozambique, which is also one of the five countries in the CCC+ category, one level above default.

Meanwhile, on a global level, Fitch upgraded its analysis, changing its global outlook on the country debt issuance sector from 'Deteriorating' to 'Neutral', essentially due to the impact of lower energy prices in Europe and the reopening of China.