The US economy may go into recession in the next two years. In a report released by Goldman Sachs and quoted by the Reuters agency and the newspaper Económico this Monday, April 18, the investment bank points to a 35% probability.

Underlying this figure is the fact that the Federal Reserve has a tough mission ahead of it to tighten monetary policy to ease inflation in the country cool down, but without causing a recession in the US. To do this, the Fed will have to narrow the gap between employment and workers and slow wage growth at a pace consistent with its 2% inflation target.

"A recession is not inevitable given the normalization in post-Covid-19, specifically in labor supply and durable goods prices will help the Fed," Goldman Sachs economics chief Jan Hatzius says in the report.

Economists, meanwhile, point to a 27.5% probability, versus April's 20% forecast, according to "Bloomberg," and expect US inflation to be at 5.7% in the last quarter of 2022, contrary to previous estimates of 4.5%.