Africa's real GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.1% in 2022, after rebounding to 6.9% in 2021, predicts the African Development Bank, which attributes the slowdown to the persistence of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

In its African Economic Outlook, released this Wednesday during the African Development Bank's (AfDB) annual meetings in Accra, the bank concludes that Africa's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebounded strongly last year to 6.9%, after the recession in 2020 caused by the covid-19 pandemic.

This growth was supported by the recovery in global demand, higher oil prices that benefited oil-exporting economies, the easing of restrictions associated with covid-19 and was coupled with growth in domestic consumption and investment.

However, quoted by Lusa, the bank forecasts that the African economy will slow down this year to 4.1%, reflecting uncertainties related to the persistence of covid-19 and the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

This conflict, writes ADB President Akinwumi Adesina in the foreword to the report, "threatens to undermine the promising economic prospects of the continent," which "risks falling into stagnation, a combination of slow growth and high inflation."

According to the banker, if the war persists, Africa's growth should stagnate at about 4% in 2023.

According to the report, Africa's economic growth varies greatly between countries and regions.

North Africa, which in 2021 was the fastest growing region (11.7%), is expected to see a slowdown this year to 4.5%, while East Africa, which last year grew by 4.8%, is expected to stabilize at 4.7%.

Average growth in West Africa was 4.3% in 2021 and is expected to remain strong at 4.1% this year, while the Central African economy is expected to grow 4.6% in 2022, following 2021's 3.4%.

Southern Africa's estimated growth of 4.2% in 2021 represents the largest recovery, from a 6% contraction, underpinned by recovery in Botswana (12.5%), Mauritius (4%), and South Africa (4.9%). By 2022, the region's economy is expected to slow to 2.5% as the effects of large fiscal stimulus are exhausted.

The report also warns that Africa's growth is very uncertain: the effects of the war in Ukraine may cause a larger-than-expected drop in global production, and the low rate of anti-covid-19 vaccination coupled with the emergence of new variants may force new restrictions.

Other negative factors include increased debt vulnerabilities, tight global financial conditions as inflationary pressures increase, the effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia, climate and environmental risks, and other socio-political and security issues.

Positive factors include faster implementation of vaccination, comprehensive resolution of debt problems, and policies to accelerate structural transformation and build economic resilience, the ADB concludes.

Economists at the African bank warn that sovereign debt remains a threat to economic recovery, despite recent deficit relief initiatives.

Although Africa's deficit is estimated to stabilize at around 70% of GDP in 2021 and 2022, after 71.4% in 2020, it is still above pre-pandemic levels.

Economists also warn that the low vaccination rate against covid-19 - only 15.3% of the population is fully vaccinated, compared to at least 60% in other regions of the world - hinder faster economic recovery and exacerbate the health impact of the pandemic.

And they remind us that Africa is the region most affected by climate shocks: five of the 10 most affected countries in 2019 are on the continent, and in 2020 and 2021 alone, the continent recorded 131 climate-related disasters (99 floods, 16 storms, 14 droughts, and two forest fires).

"Climate change therefore poses a substantial risk to African economies, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people," they say.

The annual meetings of the AfDB, the most important event of the institution that has 54 African and 27 non-African member states, are being held from Monday through Friday in Accra under the theme "Achieving Climate Resilience and a Just Energy Transition for Africa."