Fitch Solutions believes that oil production in Angola will fall by 20% by 2031 due to the maturing of oil wells and the chronic lack of investment in new discoveries.

"The main reason for the mediocre growth in oil production is the legacy effect of maturing oil wells," says Fitch Solutions in a commentary note on the maintenance of production below the limit set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

"The fall in production from Angola's current wells means that a higher rate of production growth is needed to maintain production at current levels; Angola needs around 36,000 more barrels per day of production to cancel out the impact of the natural decline," say the analysts at this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.

In the commentary, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions writes that "Angola has seen a small rise in production levels, with the start-up of several small projects, but this quarter we predict that the small rise in production will stagnate, returning to negative growth in 2023, with the effect of the decline in wells materializing".

Angola's production has been around 1.1 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, well below the limit of around 1.5 million barrels per day imposed by OPEC.

"The new limit for Angola under OPEC's total production is well above production capacities and previous growth rates indicate that there is a very low probability of Angola approaching OPEC's limits in the short term," the analysts conclude. (Lusa)