Global gas demand will recover this year from the shock of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and exceed 4 billion cubic meters for the first time, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA predicts that the increase will continue at least until 2024, although at a lower rate than before the crisis.

In its gas outlook and analysis report published today, the IEA estimates that after last year's 2% decline, consumption in 2021 will increase by 3.6% and the rate of progression will be at an annual average of 1.7% over the following three years.

In 2024, the world will absorb about 4.3 billion cubic meters, or 7% more than in 2019, before the economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

Energy markets director Keisuke Sadamori argued that "stronger policies" are needed to make this gas demand moderate and compatible with climate goals, which means greater energy efficiency and efforts by the gas sector to reduce its emissions, particularly methane emissions.

Industry will be mainly responsible for the increase in consumption, both this year and in subsequent years (it will increase at an average rate of 3.4% per year) due to the effect of the economic recovery, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

The other big driver (one-third) will be the replacement by gas of other fuels in electricity generation, mainly coal and petroleum products, which generate more emissions.

Half of the decline in gas sales in 2020 was caused by the drop in electricity generation with this fuel.

The IEA notes that this decline would have been much larger if the price of gas had not been substantially lower, which encouraged power companies - especially in the United States, but also to a lesser extent in Europe - to turn to this fuel in preference to coal.

Now, with rising gas prices, the opposite effect is occurring in the United States, where it is being replaced by coal for electricity generation.

This is not the case in Europe, where its competitiveness is protected by the high emission rights fees that power companies would have to pay to produce with coal.

Asia-Pacific will account for 47% of the increase in consumption worldwide between 2020 and 2024 (China alone will account for 30%), due to an average increase of 4.5% per year in this region.

In North America, the increase will be 1% a year, as prices are slowing the recovery.

It will be even weaker in Europe (0.4%), where the study authors predict a strong recovery to 6% in 2021, thanks in part to its comparative advantage with coal, followed by a slow decline in the following years due to the attraction of renewables.

Latin America was the region hardest hit by the 2020 shock, with consumption falling by 9.9%, from which it will not recover until 2024, with an average annual increase of 2.5%.