Oxford Economics predicts that inflation in Mozambique will gradually slow down this year, reaching December with an increase of 8.9% compared to the same period in 2022, a year marked by a near doubling of price rises.

"We expect inflation to gradually moderate to 8.9% year-on-year by the end of 2023, which will give the Bank of Mozambique room to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year," write analysts from the African department of British Oxford Economics, quoted by Lusa.

In a commentary on the evolution of rising prices in Mozambique, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analysts point out that "inflation registered an average increase of 10.3% in 2022, above the 5.7% registered in 2021", and point out that "the peak of inflation should have been reached in September, and should remain below double digits this year, due to the expected decline in global commodity prices and a slowdown in world economic growth".

In the note, the analysts warn, however, that "despite the expected moderation in global food and energy prices and the stability of the metical exchange rate, inflation is likely to remain high in the first half of this year due to base effects".

Inflation in Mozambique continued to slow down, falling to 9.8% in January compared to the same period last year, compared to a rise of 10.9% in the previous month compared to December 2021, driven by rising food prices, which were the item that contributed most to the rise in prices.

At a regional level, the United Nations (UN) forecasts that inflation will fall to 14.4% this year and 9.6% next year.

In the report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2023, the UN considers that, among the various African regions, the ones that will experience the highest inflation this year are North Africa (16%), West Africa (15.1%) and Southern Africa (14.6%).

Still with inflation in the double digits is East Africa, with 11%, and, with the lowest percentage, the Central Africa region, with 3.6% of inflation in 2023.

More generally, global inflation is expected to remain high in 2023, at 6.5%, and world production will slow down compared to 2022, to 1.9%, the UN announced, calling on governments to avoid austerity.