Standard Bank predicts that the Totalenergies-led liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique, will only resume in 2023 if there is security.

"The latest terrorist attacks in Cabo Delgado may lead Totalenergies to an additional delay in the construction of the Afungi LNG venture," reads the bank's latest analysis note quoted by Lusa.

"If safety conditions are in place, we may still see construction resume during 2023," but "initial expectations were that construction would resume during the last quarter" of 2022, he recalls, about the 20 billion euro investment in which many of the country's hopes for boosting the economy reside.

The mega-project was suspended a year ago due to a violent armed attack (with a never revealed death toll) against the village of Palma, the base for part of the construction companies, near the construction sites and the construction zone.

The armed insurgency, which has raged since 2017, sometimes claimed by the extremist group Islamic State, continues to provoke attacks in the region, even though the foreign-backed military offensive has pushed the rebel groups into hiding places in the bush.

Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have been supporting Mozambique in the fight for a year, in addition to military training offered by the European Union (EU) and the United States of America.

The situation has improved, but not enough.

Totalenergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said in January that he wants to go "to Palma, Mocímboa da Praia and Mueda: when he sees that life is back to normal, with state services and population, then the project can start again."

In the same analysis note, Standard Bank revises upwards the inflation forecast for this year in Mozambique to 11.7% because of the increase in food and fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine.

Rising inflation and lower-than-expected foreign investment, due to delays in gas projects, lead the bank to lower its expectations for Mozambique's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, now estimating it to grow 3.3% by 2021, rather than the 3.4% that had been anticipated.