The Moody's agency has raised its forecast for oil barrel prices in the medium term, with quotations ranging between $50 and $70 per barrel. This is the estimate it had before the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on prices.

This new forecast reflects the expectation that production costs per barrel will continue their upward trend, in line with growing demand.

"We also expect tight supply to continue to support rising oil prices," said Elena Nadtotchi, senior vice president at Moody's.

The agency said that the exploration and production ("upstream") sector continues to invest much less than in the pre-pandemic period. This trend continues despite the rise in oil and natural gas prices this year.

Moreover, the companies in the segment indicate that the level of investment will remain low next year.

According to Moody's, oil exploration and production disbursements will rise only marginally in 2021, following a 30% drop in 2020. This factor, combined with a recovery in demand, should support prices. The agency expects a "modest uptick" in investments in 2022, even with the caution shown by companies.

"Our analysis shows that exploration and production companies will need to increase their investments considerably in the medium term to fully replenish reserves and avoid declining production in the future," reads a note signed by Sajjad Alam, Moody's vice president.

The agency expects large independent companies, as well as integrated and national oil companies, to maintain production discipline in 2022. Supply must therefore be increased gradually to meet rising demand. The speed of the increase in supply, however, is expected to vary depending on the region of the world.

Oil rises above $80 as global energy crisis set to boost demand

US oil futures are flat after the barrel breached the $80 barrier for the first time since November 2014.

Oil rose as the global energy crisis shook the market. At the same time OPEC+ was restructuring production at a modest pace.

West Texas Intermediate futures were up about 2% after breaching the "psychological" price ceiling on Friday for the first time since November 2014.

Prices for fuels such as coal and natural gas are rising in Europe and Asia. This is due to low reserves before the Northern Hemisphere winter, leading to a shift to petroleum products such as diesel and kerosene.