The tariff war unleashed by Donald Trump's administration in 2025, with surcharges exceeding 100% on products from China and similar measures against historic allies such as Canada and Mexico, could redefine the map of global trade.

As countries look for alternatives to avoid economic losses, a crucial debate is emerging: are the capital movements generated by this trade conflict legitimate strategic responses or do they open up opportunities for illicit practices such as money laundering?

It is expected to create a reconfiguration of the international trade scheme, the search for new markets and the fragmentation of the global financial system which, paradoxically, opens up both economic opportunities and systemic risks.

Reorienting International Trade

The imposition of tariffs by the US forces countries to evaluate their partnerships, looking at the case of Brazil, for example, which sees a window of hope for expanding exports of soybeans, meat and timber to China.

The US, on the other hand, wants to take advantage of the reduced competitiveness of taxed competitors. In this sense, several Brazilian industrial sectors are hoping to attract investment from companies seeking to escape the tariffs imposed on China and Mexico. There are reports that American companies are already considering relocating production to the country, with a view to lower costs and access to emerging markets.

The context described above should lead to rapprochement and the creation of economic groups between countries (such as BRICS), in response to US protectionism, which will clearly redefine strategic alliances.

It should be noted that the Mercosur-EU agreement, which is in the final stages of approval and which was seen as a way of diversifying Brazilian exports, could be jeopardized depending on the progress of this tariff war.

Financial Multipolarity: New Routes, New Risks

Although it's a complex issue, so far addressed only by Chinese President XI JINPING and Brazilian President Lula da Silva, the tariff war could accelerate the search for alternatives to the dominance of the US dollar. Russia and China have already been expanding the use of local currencies in bilateral transactions, reaching a record trade volume of US$ 244.8 billion by 2024.

Several authors believe that the supposed dominance of the SWIFT, VISA and MASTERCARD systems by the US may be the origin of this tariff war, which raises the legitimate need to create parallel financial infrastructures.

The imminent fragmentation advocated by the world's economic "periphery", while promoting financial multipolarity, also opens up spaces for money laundering schemes and undermines international cooperation against financial crimes.

It should be noted that transactions in lower-rated currencies through informal payment channels, combined with the lack of regulatory standardization between competing trade blocs, create fertile ground for the circulation of illicit capital.

The reorientation of production chains, preferential markets and the flight of capital to less regulated jurisdictions or countries with a strong appetite for foreign direct investment, such as Mozambique and other African countries, can lead to the risk of joining illicit financial flows.

In addition, the tariff war could put pressure on local currencies and encourage the circulation of US dollars on the informal market, making it difficult for the formal international financial system to trace transactions. Furthermore, the shift towards less regulated jurisdictions could lead to the creation of "front" companies with the sole purpose of money laundering.

Measures to prevent money laundering during the global tariff war

The tariff war is an ambivalent phenomenon, its course depending on the ability of countries to take advantage of existing opportunities and equalize their trade balance. Therefore, all countries directly or indirectly affected by this economic schism must: (i) strengthen their Due diligenceboth its new investors and the commodities(ii) accelerate structural reforms to identify and prosecute cases of money laundering; (iii) strengthen international cooperation with a view to exchanging information and monitoring financial flows; and (iv) expand international cooperation especially in forums such as FATF, EGMONT GROUP with a view to harmonizing rules to combat financial crimes.

Text: Samir Zacarias - Specialist in combating financial crimes