A Confederation of Economic Associations of Mozambique - CTA predicts volatility in the prices of raw materials, including strategic minerals and fuels, and uncertainty about the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), as a result of external pressures aggravated by the global trade war.

With regard to price volatility, the concern of the Mozambican private sector is that the commodities energy "move in unison", which means that if the volatility of raw material prices occurs, it will affect the price of gas and LNG, which Mozambique exports, as well as coal.

The global trade war is focused on the US and China - with tariffs of up to 145% imposed by the US and Chinese retaliation of up to 125% - which is contributing to a slowdown in world trade and pressure on import prices.

In addition, in the current geopolitical context, the risk of technological fragmentation and indirect restrictions on external funding has increased, with the closure of USAID and the Millennium Challenge Account program by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

The direct impacts for Mozambique include the end of an average flow of 600 million dollars in aid through USAID programs in the country, and the suspension of the Millennium Challenge Account-Mozambique (MCA), which provided for a package of 500 million dollars for investments in rural infrastructure, agricultural value chains and institutional reforms, particularly in the province of Zambézia.

The non-concretion of this support directly affects the implementation of structuring projects that would benefit thousands of small and medium-sized Mozambican companies, especially in the areas of transport, irrigation and access to energy. (Information Note, CTA)