The Center for Public Integrity, a Mozambican non-governmental organization (NGO), considered yesterday that the gas crisis could make oil company TotalEnergies accelerate the resumption of liquefaction projects in Cabo Delgado.

Valued at 20 billion euros, they are the largest private investment in Africa and have been stalled for a year and a half because of the armed insurgency in the region.

"TotalEnergies may reconsider its initial position" of only resuming work with "normalized life": even with some outbreaks of armed violence in the province, prices are inviting.

The Center for Public Integrity (CIP) estimates that the gas price forecasts that underpin investment have skyrocketed 325% in the current context, with the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.

"At least in the first few years of production, they will be much higher than initial forecasts" and the oil consortium can make "extraordinary profits" even if it has extra expenses for security.

"A quick return from TotalEnergies is foreseeable, even considering that at best the gas will only reach the market in 2027/28 if the works restart in the first half of 2023, and also assuming that the project will not suffer any delay related to insecurity, which is still a reality," he adds quoted by Lusa.

The scenario may reward the Mozambican state coffers, but CIP warns of other risks.

"Terrorism in Cabo Delgado is first and foremost a protection crisis, with civilians, especially women and children, exposed to serious human rights violations," he highlights.

In this sense, he considers it urgent that "the Government does not fall into the temptation of only protecting the interests of TotalEnergies" in Cabo Delgado.

The NGO says it is important that the state "focus on creating conditions for effective peace and widespread security throughout the northern region."

Cabo Delgado province has been terrorized since 2017 by armed rebels, with some attacks claimed by the extremist group Islamic State.

TotalEnergies has postponed a reassessment of safety in the region until later this year to decide whether to resume construction of the gas liquefaction plant and the surrounding industrial town.

For a year now, an offensive by government troops, with support from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has allowed rebel-held areas near gas projects to be retaken - although attacks continue elsewhere in the province and in the neighboring region of Nampula.

There are about 800,000 internally displaced people due to the conflict, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and about 4,000 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project.