The recent activities of terrorist groups in some districts of Cabo Delgado province seem to be revealing a more robust combat strategy, capable of making it difficult for the Defense and Security Forces to fight back.ça.

This perspective contradicts the government's claims about the weakening of terrorist operations in that province caused by the dispersal of the groups and the elimination of their logistical bases.

According to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), the Islamic State in Mozambique has changed its modus operandi. A recent report indicates that the pattern of action this year differs from that adopted last year. In 2025, it recorded peaks of insurgent events similar to those recorded in 2022.

The document notes that the dispersion of terrorists into smaller groups has not affected their ability to carry out attacks, but has allowed them to be mobile and to expand their geography of operation. With this, it says, “they can potentially overwhelm the security forces more easily”.

“EIM [Islamic State of Mozambique] activity in a wider territory has not harmed its operational capacity. After a decline in 2023, EIM activity in Cabo Delgado increased sharply in 2024 and has managed to maintain that intensity ever since. In 2025, some months reached a level of activity similar to that of 2022. This suggests a renewed capacity for sustained insurgent activity and an increased operational reach in Cabo Delgado,” it reads.

Although EIM activity in October persisted in important northern districts such as Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, incidents also spread to Balama and Montepuez, along the Lúrio River, where the insurgents have maintained a presence since the end of August. The expansion of activity in October goes far beyond the traditional stronghold of Muidumbe-Macomia, writes the ACLED.