Oxford Economics said today that the withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS would dash hopes of restoring democracy, increase insecurity in the region and damage the economy.

"It is a loss for the regional bloc of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which they helped to found in 1975, weakens the institutional integrity of the bloc and could worsen insecurity in the Sahel," writes the African department of the British consultancy Oxford Economics, quoted by Notícias ao Minuto.

For these analysts, the departure of the three countries from the regional bloc "dashes any hopes of restoring democracy and civil governance in the coming years", as well as "worsening regional insecurity" and damaging the economy.

"With ECOWAS expected to maintain sanctions, economic conditions could worsen, which could lead to an increase in migration and a worsening of food insecurity in the region," adds the consultant, pointing out that the three countries have little trade between them and none has a connection to the sea.

In the commentary, the analysts also draw attention to the possibility of military coups being followed in other countries, with Cameroon, Chad and Sierra Leone having a "high risk of a coup this year".

On Monday, Mali and Burkina Faso sent ECOWAS a "formal notification" of their withdrawal from the regional organization, according to official sources.

The two countries and Niger had announced on Sunday their decision to leave ECOWAS.

Mali's Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave an AFP correspondent a copy of the letter sent to ECOWAS and Burkina Faso's official news agency simultaneously reported that the country had done the same, "confirming the joint decision taken yesterday (Sunday) with Mali and Niger to leave the sub-regional institution".

The information on Niger was not initially published. But the communications from Mali and Burkina Faso underline the common nature of the three countries' actions.

The ruling military regimes in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced on Sunday that their countries would withdraw "without delay" from ECOWAS, a new act of rupture with potentially far-reaching practical consequences.

In a previous press release, ECOWAS announced that it had not yet received "formal and direct notification" of this decision.

According to the ECOWAS texts, this notification starts the one-year period before the withdrawal takes effect.

The coups d'état in Mali (May 24, 2021), Niger (July 26, 2023), Burkina Faso (August 6, 2023) overthrew democratically elected governments and brought to power military juntas that accused Western forces, in particular the former colonial power (France), of interference.

In September, the three countries, which had formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), agreed to strengthen cooperation and negotiated military aid agreements in the event of external intervention.

The three countries also claim to be under attack from Islamic extremist groups and have criticized previous governments for having failed in this regard.

The French troops were expelled and elements of the Russian mercenary group Wagner are reported to be on the ground.

ECOWAS has criticized the governments of the three countries and several leaders have admitted the possibility of military action on the ground to restore democratic order.