An assessment mission proposes the complete withdrawal of the Southern African military fighting the armed groups in Cabo Delgado by July 2024, noting that the situation in the province "is now calm", although the risks remain.
The assessment was proposed on Tuesday to the Extraordinary Summit of the SADC (Southern African Development Community) Troika on Cooperation in the Areas of Politics, Defense and Security.
The communiqué released on Tuesday by the Mozambican authorities at the end of the summit does not address the aforementioned proposal to withdraw from the Southern African Military Mission (SAMIM), but it does report on an extension of the term of the regional troop's presence in Cabo Delgado province, northern Mozambique, for another year, i.e. until July 16, 2024.
In its recommendations, the assessment mission advises a gradual start to SAMIM's withdrawal from December 15 this year and the completion of the withdrawal on July 15, 2024, i.e. one day before the end of the extension decided on Tuesday by the SADC troika.
The analysis of the situation points to the "growing financial stress" of member states and the lack of budget for actions to mobilize communities to support foreign troops" as risks of SAMIM staying for another year.
It also warns of the danger of a deterioration in relations between the SADC military and the communities affected by "terrorism" in Cabo Delgado and of a less well-planned withdrawal.
This assessment mission presented to the Extraordinary Troika Summit of the SADC Organ another scenario of a longer stay of the Southern African military, with a timetable starting the gradual withdrawal on December 15, 2024 and ending on July 15, 2025.
Another option, which has since been discarded due to the extension of SAMIM's mandate for another year, would be to extend the presence of SADC forces for just six months, but this would entail the risk of a rapid deterioration in the security situation and the spread of armed group action to more territories.
For all three scenarios of withdrawal of regional forces, the assessment mission pointed out the imperative for the Armed Forces of Defense and Mozambique (FADMO) to be empowered to replace the foreign military in the areas recovered from the rebels in Cabo Delgado.
In this regard, the mission notes the capacity building efforts of the Mozambican army carried out by the European Union (EU) and the United States of America (USA).
SADC notes that progress has been made in the fight against the insurgents, who have been cornered in a reduced perimeter in the Macomia district.
Faced with the defeats they have suffered, the document continues, the insurgents have adopted a new tactic, dividing themselves into small groups that mingle with the population and buy products at inflated prices, in an effort to "win hearts and minds".
In this attempt to get along with the people, they are trying to convey the message that they only want to establish an Islamic state and are against violence, says the SADC assessment mission.
Despite the progress, joint combat actions against terrorists must continue, adapting to the rebels' new modus operandi by intensifying the mechanisms for gathering operational information, the text reads.
In addition to SAMIM and the Mozambican government forces, Rwandan troops are fighting the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, operating on the perimeter of the area where the natural gas projects in the Rovuma basin are located.
The province of Cabo Delgado has been facing an armed insurgency for almost six years, with some attacks claimed by the extremist group Islamic State.
The insurgency has led to a military response since July 2021, with support from Rwanda and SADC, liberating districts near the gas projects, but new waves of attacks have emerged in the south of the region and in neighboring Nampula province.
The conflict has already displaced a million people, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and caused around 4,000 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project. (noam)
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