The joint military maneuvers taking place off the east coast of South Africa between the Russian, Chinese and South African navies reveal the "inconsistency" of Pretoria's repeated non-alignment with the war in Ukraine, warn analysts.

Analysts consider that the joint military maneuvers taking place off the east coast of South Africa between the Russian, Chinese and South African navies denounce the "inconsistency" of Pretoria's repeated non-alignment with the war in Ukraine.

"South Africa has moved from a kind of non-interventionist position to being very close to supporting Russian behavior in Ukraine," Tom Lodge, an expert in African politics and professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Limerick, Ireland, told Lusa.

According to the researcher, "when you start having joint military maneuvers off the coast of East Africa with the Russians - the ten-day naval exercise between the three militaries, which has been going on since last Friday - the talk of the South Africans when they say they are non-aligned seems inconsistent."

"All countries conduct military exercises with friends around the world. It's the natural course of relations," said the head of South African diplomacy, Naledi Pandor, when she received her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Pretoria on January 23.

Naval exercises coincide with the first anniversary of the war

The 10 days of exercises, called Mosi II, coincide with the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, a calendar that is "too symbolic" - in the opinion of Paul Nantulya, a researcher at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), an analysis institute in Washington funded by the US Congress.

"I don't believe that this calendar was chosen by chance," says Tom Lodge. "I'm surprised it hasn't attracted more comment and more attention than it has," adds the Irish university professor.

This is the second time that naval exercises have been held between the three countries - the first, Mosi I, took place in 2019 - but in the international context in which they take place, they assume different importance and significance for the world and for each of the participants.

Mosi II, according to some international analysts, sends a clear message that, at a time when Russia is the target of a wide range of sanctions for violating some of the most important international conventions, three of the five BRICS member countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - are striving to show that the organization is in good health and remains committed to developing its defence and security muscle.

This current of analysis considers that the economic grouping of emerging powers, in a new geopolitical world that is apparently emerging, poses major challenges to the global governance structures led by the United States and Europe.

South Africa took over the BRICS presidency on January 1 and has already announced that it expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the bloc's summit next August, a month after the second Russia-Africa summit, scheduled for July in Moscow.

As for the individual interests of each of the participants in the exercises, in Paul Nantulya's summary, "Russia is trying to reassure African countries and tell them that they can still work with Moscow on defense; China is taking the opportunity to show Africa that military cooperation is back on the agenda; and South Africa is showing the continent that it can bring two superpowers together, which is also a very powerful message."

On the other hand, if China demonstrates to the world that "it gives Russia an opening within the framework of the international system, Moscow also shows that, regardless of the international sanctions it faces, its capacity to develop military training operations with China and South Africa has not been diminished," while also making it clear to the international community that "it maintains control of its international relations and diplomacy," stresses Nantulya.

Finally, with these military maneuvers, China has "an opportunity to say face-to-face to African countries that military cooperation is back and this is a popular message, because African countries have been pressuring Beijing to do so," says the ACSS researcher.

What's more, "Beijing is finding yet another way to strengthen its already strong relations with South Africa," of which China is the main trading partner, "but also with Southern Africa, because 34% of China's military commitments in Africa are in that sub-region," continues Nantulya.

Of the three participants in the maneuvers, China has the most to gain, according to the researcher. "Until now, Russia was the largest exporter of arms to Africa, followed by the United States and European countries, and only then by China, which has around 17% of the market," he points out.

Tests on warships involve missiles

"This figure is now likely to rise," not only because the Russian defense industry is focused on the war effort in Ukraine, but also because "many of Russia's defense funds have been sanctioned by Western countries and the United Nations, suddenly leaving African countries without credits to import Russian weapons," he adds.

"I think many of these programs will now be directed towards China, which should be the main beneficiary of the situation," he concludes.

The participation in Mosi II of a Russian frigate, the Admiral Gorshkov, armed with the latest Zircon hypersonic missiles, a weapon that Russia says can penetrate any anti-missile defense and hit targets at sea and on land, is another of the strong symbolisms of the exercises.

The warship is due to test a Zircon missile during joint naval exercises, according to Russian state news agency Tass. The test, which may take place this Wednesday, will be the first launch of the missile in an international exercise, before the ship returns to the Black Sea to join the Russian naval force involved in the war in Ukraine.

"This is a very violent weapon that Russia has been using in Ukraine, and the fact that the Russian warship is carrying it is also a message that Moscow is trying to send to the West and to Ukraine," said Paul Nantulya, quoted by Lusa and the Expresso newspaper.