The authorities warn that around 400,000 to 600,000 may need humanitarian assistance during the current 2025/2026 rainy season. 

In addition to the expected impacts on agriculture, with around four million hectares of land at risk, the social sector could also be severely affected. It is estimated that up to four million people are in areas at risk.

The water supply could also be affected, since around 120 systems have been identified as vulnerable to flooding.

The education and health sectors could also be affected, with more than 4,000 schools and 500,500 health facilities at risk of direct impact.

According to Agostinho Vilanculos, head of the National Directorate for Water Resources Management (DNGRH), the scenario highlights critical river basins, such as the Maputo, Umbelúzi, Incomáti, Limpopo, Savane, Púnguè and Licungo.

"The risk of flooding is high, especially in the first period, in October, November and December, with greater incidence in the south of the country.

Between January and March 2026, when the soils are saturated and the dams are practically full, we foresee the occurrence of floods of great magnitude in these basins," said Vilanculos, on the sidelines of the 12th National Forum on Climate Forecasting, held this Friday (11) in Maputo.

Mozambique may experience floods of great magnitude during the 2025/2026 rainy season, which will be above normal and with a potentially greater risk compared to the 2024/2025 season, although interspersed with dry periods.

It's worth remembering that, in 2024/2025, the flows in the main river basins registered normal to slightly above-normal levels. However, the new season is expected to be marked by higher volumes of precipitation and a consequent increase in risks.

According to Vilanculos, the upstream dams in neighboring countries are already close to maximum capacity. This could aggravate the risk of significant runoff into Mozambique if there is heavy rainfall in the region.

For his part, the climatologist at Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), Isaías Raiva, explained that the 2025/2026 rainy season will be characterized by irregularity in the distribution of rainfall, especially in the northern region, especially the coastal strip of Cabo Delgado.

In the first period, between October and December 2025, the rains should be concentrated in the south of the country, while from January to March 2026 they will be nationwide, extending to the center, north and much of the south. However, there should be interspersed dry periods.

Raiva added that the cyclone forecast will be drawn up in November, as the waters of the Indian Ocean have so far remained slightly cooled, a condition that does not favor the formation of these phenomena. Even so, he recalled that the cyclone season climatologically takes place between November and April.

The climatologist also pointed out that Mozambique already has the internal capacity to produce national weather forecasts, without depending exclusively on the SADC region. "We already had our forecast completed at the end of August, even before the SADC regional meeting," he said.

In conclusion, he said that all extreme weather phenomena, including tropical storms, can create instability and destabilize human life, even when they form in the ocean. (AIM)